Will the GOP Ever Recover From 2008?
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
By Bob Fertik
Democrats.com
I'm going to step out on a limb and predict Obama will win by 7%, which is 1% more than his current lead. (I'm 3% more optimistic than Chris Bowers because McCain has discredited himself and Obama has an awesome ground game.) And I'll predict Democrats end up with 58 Senate seats (a gain of 7) and 258 House seats (a gain of 22).
When the new Congress begins, the Republican Party will be powerless. Yes they will be able to form alliances with conservative Democrats to limit President Obama's reach, but they will not be able to stop Obama from enacting his core agenda. And within a year, the 2010 mid-term campaign will begin.
Republicans hope 2010 will be a repeat of 1994. Republicans started 1993 as a permanent (40 year) minority in the House with a popular Democratic President, but Newt Gingrich and Tom DeLay seized on Clinton's health care debacle to take over the House in a rightwing Republican revolution.
In 2009, Democrats won't repeat the mistakes of 1993. A controversial health care bill won't be the first big item on the agenda, but rather an energy/jobs plan that will be immensely popular in the middle of a recession. And as they work their way through other issues, Democrats won't fracture, but will remain united to deliver on as many promises as they can.
As a result, Republicans will have few issues to run on in 2010. But the bigger question is: will they have any decent challengers?
2008 was not a great advertisement for the Republican first string: McCain only won the nomination because he was less awful than Mannikin Mitt, Rudy Mussolini, Mike Wannabee, Fred Gumption, and the rest of an awful field. The second string VP choices were worse; then-unknown Sarah Palin outshone Romney, Lieberman, and Pawlenty.
For the 2010 election, the GOP will have to look beyond its dismal second string and empty out its bench. And the fundamental problem for the GOP is ...they have no bench!...(Click here for remainder).
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