Hooray! The Second Derivative of the Unemployment Rate Improved!
Sunday, May 10, 2009
By Nate Silver
FiveThirtyEight.com
A lot of people are excited today not because the unemployment rate is low (it's very high -- 8.9 percent), nor because the economy is adding jobs (it lost another 539,000 last month, according to statistics just released by the BLS), but merely because it's losing jobs less quickly. That is, the second derivative of the employment rate -- the change in the rate of change -- has improved. This is what the situation looks like:

The economy started losing jobs in January, 2008 and has continued to lose them ever since. The peak month for job losses -- so far -- was January 2009, in which 741,000 jobs were lost. The month at which the second derivative bottomed out -- the time when the rate of job losses was increasing the fastest -- came in November....(Click for remainder.)
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FiveThirtyEight.com
A lot of people are excited today not because the unemployment rate is low (it's very high -- 8.9 percent), nor because the economy is adding jobs (it lost another 539,000 last month, according to statistics just released by the BLS), but merely because it's losing jobs less quickly. That is, the second derivative of the employment rate -- the change in the rate of change -- has improved. This is what the situation looks like:
The economy started losing jobs in January, 2008 and has continued to lose them ever since. The peak month for job losses -- so far -- was January 2009, in which 741,000 jobs were lost. The month at which the second derivative bottomed out -- the time when the rate of job losses was increasing the fastest -- came in November....(Click for remainder.)








